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How Long Will $1 Million Last in Retirement? Three Spending Scenarios

A $1 million balance has no single expiration date. The annual portfolio draw—not total household spending by itself—determines how quickly you use it.

By Steven, Founder · Published October 30, 2026 · Updated October 30, 2026

Short answer

  • Subtract reliable income from spending and include taxes before calculating the portfolio draw.
  • At zero real return, $40,000 of annual real withdrawals uses $1 million in 25 years.
  • A fixed-return longevity calculation is not a probability of success.

Define what the portfolio must pay

A household spending $60,000 with $20,000 of other spendable income needs a $40,000 portfolio contribution before any additional withdrawal taxes. Another household spending the same $60,000 with no other income needs the entire amount from investments. The headline balance is identical; the draw is not.

Keep account taxes visible. If a simplified effective tax rate on a fully taxable withdrawal is 20%, funding $40,000 of net spending requires $50,000 gross. A qualified Roth distribution or a taxable-account sale with substantial cost basis has a different tax calculation. Do not deduct taxes twice if they are already in the budget.

Three draws at zero real return

Use today's dollars and assume the portfolio merely keeps pace with inflation after fees and taxes on investment returns. A $30,000 annual real draw supports about 33.3 years of spending; $40,000 supports 25 years; $60,000 supports about 16.7 years. The fractional figures are cash-equivalent horizons: annual payments would include a smaller final payment where necessary.

These are divisions, not safe withdrawal recommendations. They deliberately isolate spending from market growth. A horizon of 40 years would not be funded by any of the three constant draws under this zero-real-return assumption.

Add a modest fixed return, then inspect the limitation

At a constant 2% annual real return and withdrawals at each year-end, the corresponding mathematical depletion horizons are about 55.5, 35.0 and 20.5 years. The recurrence is next balance = current balance × 1.02 − annual draw. A calculator with beginning-year withdrawals will produce shorter horizons.

Those extra years depend on earning the same real return every year. Real portfolios do not do that. Losses while withdrawals continue can leave less money to participate in a recovery. Bengen's original historical work studied sequences precisely because an average return is not enough to establish portfolio longevity.

The later income years can change the path

A constant draw is a useful first check, but many retirements have phases: a large bridge before Social Security, lower withdrawals once benefits start, and later spending changes. Conversely, a flat pension can lose purchasing power, increasing the portfolio gap over time.

Run the simple draw with the retirement withdrawal calculator. Then look at a household timeline in the sample demo if income start dates or changing expenses dominate the result. Keep guaranteed income separate from assumed investment returns.

Make the number actionable

Write down a baseline draw, a lean-year draw and a large-expense year. If cutting travel saves $6,000 but the projected gap is $20,000, flexibility alone has not closed it. Consider work duration, benefits timing and the length of retirement before changing a return assumption to make the result fit.

The money-lasts guide explains how to move beyond a single horizon. These educational scenarios omit market uncertainty and do not tell you which withdrawal rate is appropriate for your household.

Three spending scenarios in today's dollars

Starting balance
$1,000,000
Annual portfolio draws
$30,000 / $40,000 / $60,000
Return and timing
2% real, year-end draws

Approximate depletion: 55.5 / 35.0 / 20.5 years

Solve the fixed-return drawdown equation; fractional horizons represent a partial last year's payment. Taxes on withdrawals must already be included in the draw.

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Methodology

See how Meridary checks calculator figures, tests the planning engine, states model limits, and records corrections on the validation methodology page.

Sources

This is an educational estimate, not tax or financial advice. Figures reflect the law year shown and the inputs you provide. Consult a qualified professional before acting.